Pyrrhic victory for VVD

Now that the election results have been counted, there is nothing left but the back and forth of coalition forming. JOEP DERKSEN looks at the lay of the land following September's elections and what it might mean for the Netherlands.

The people have spoken and the economic liberals (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie, VVD) and labour (Partij van de Arbeid, PvdA) are the winners in terms of parliamentary seats. The VVD even gained ten more seats than last time to end at a respectable number of 41 seats. This despite the fact that their cooperation with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) ended in mayhem and dismay.

The campaign period was brief but fierce. Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) only started wooing the voters less than three weeks before the 12 September; election day. During the summer holiday, the Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij, SP) led in the polls and went up to gaining 38 theoretical parliamentary seats. After a terrible performance on television by their leader Emiel Roemer, the SP slipped in the polls and on election day was only good for 15 seats; the same number they had two years ago. The SP even received less votes than their arch rivals, the PVV, making them the fourth largest party of the country; not even good enough to gain the bronze medal. 

Before election day, the tactics of both VVD and PvdA were to obtain the support of as many voters as possible. The PvdA call was to vote for leader Diederik Samsom if you want to get rid of the current government ideas. The VVD called on people to vote for them if they liked the political path that had been taken over the past two years. The voters obliged faithfully, with the outcome that the VVD went up to 41 seats and that the PvdA gained 8 seats to climb to a total of 38. With 79 seats altogether these two parties have a majority in the House of Parliament (Tweede Kamer), which has a total of 150 seats. Therefore, Samsom and Rutte are forced to start the negotiations with each other, leaving dazed voters behind who particularly voted for one party, to prevent cooperation with the other.

The fall of the Christian Democratic Party (Chriselijk Democratische Appèl, CDA) seems unstoppable. They were halved to 21 seats in 2010 and went down last month to a dismal 13 seats. Just one seat above Democrats 1966 (Democraten ‘66, D66), that gained two seats. The Christian Union (ChristenUnie) stayed still at five seats. Another big loser is GroenLinks: internal fighting and controversy surrounding Dutch soldiers in Afghanistan made the party crumble to a meagre four seats. The animal lovers already had their own party, Party for the Animals (Partij voor de Dieren, PvdD), which stayed at two seats. Now another interest group has joined the political ranks: 50 Plus. This party’s main goal is to protect the interests of people older than half a century. Remarkably, the Christian Reformed Party (Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij, SGP) which is notorious for banning women to be elected, gained an extra seat to end at three.

Now that the votes are counted, the political waltz has started; Rutte and Samsom have met almost every day to talk about parliamentary cooperation. Many dinners and lunches have been eaten together and these talks have obviously taken their toll. On the third Tuesday of September (Prinsjesdag; Day of the Princes), the queen gave her annual speech. While she talked, millions of television viewers could see Samsom fall asleep.

Even though the VVD has won the most seats, it is the PvdA who has the strongest hand in the negotiations. In order to have any chance of forming a majority government, the VVD depends on the cooperation of the PvdA. Virtually all parties have ruled out governing with the PVV and a coalition of right(ish) wing parties VVD, CDA, SGP and the left-wing D66 can only count on 69 seats. The PvdA however, can reach a comfortable majority when they start cooperating with SP, CDA and D66. This government coalition would have 78 seats; enough for a majority. This would be a government with a very different approach to handling the financial crisis than has been put forward by the outgoing government; no cutbacks on government aid, but taxing middle class workers and upper class incomes.

If the negotiations between the PvdA and VVD collapse, Mark Rutte will be the biggest loser. Instead of a second consecutive term as Prime Minister, he will be forced to be the leader of the largest opposition party. And that will be a tough nut to crack, because the left wing parties will do their utmost to cover each others back and stay in power for the next four years. Therefore, the VVD's success may be a pyrrhic victory after all. Being the biggest party is no guarantee for supplying the Prime Minister. It was former PvdA-leader Joop den Uyl who knew that all too well three decades ago; the political negotiations with other parties did not go smoothly and the CDA and VVD then went on to govern together, without the PvdA. Will history take revenge on the future? The faith of the VVD is in the hands of former Greenpeace activist Diederik Samsom.

(Verschenen in The Holland Times, editie oktober 2012).