Party confidence at all-time low

All signs point to the current Dutch government heading for a fall as public support wanes. JOEP DERKSEN looks at the figures behind the increasingly unpopular ruling coalition.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte is the laughing stock of the nation. That is, if there was anything to laugh about the moment when he opens his mouth. Whenever the ever-smiling Rutte is telling the nation that the Dutch economy is doing better, he is only believed by a meager nine percent of the population. And when PvdA-leader Diederik Samsom gives positive comments about the Dutch economy, only two percent of the population is willing to follow him. Basically; just his friends and family. Even more so, patience of the voters with the current government consisting of the VVD (Liberals) and PvdA (Labour) seems to have run out.

It was only last year that the VVD won 41 seats in the Tweede Kamer and the PvdA then obtained 38. Since then, the nation’s leadership has achieved a feat no other government has done before them. In less than 12 months the confidence in the government, its representatives, their statements and promises have spiralled to an all-time low. One poll after another proves this, but one only needs to talk to the neighbours on the street or deal with this subject at birthday parties.

Over 80 percent of voters are convinced that the VVD and PvdA are making the economic crisis worse, a poll by private research think tank Ipsos shows. The most positive group about the government’s policies are VVD-voters, but even 70 percent of them think that the cabinet is making things worse. Meanwhile, 89 percent of PvdA-voters think the same way, as do 94 percent of the people who voted for Geert Wilders’ PVV and the SP (Socialist Party). And will the government be able to solve the crisis? Only 24 percent of the voters believe so. Most Dutch people think that the solution for the international financial crisis will come from the world economy and companies.

The political parties that are mostly benefiting from the falling levels of government approval are the SP, D66 (Democrats) and, in particular, the PVV. The PVV has become the largest party of the nation in polls from Maurice de Hond as well as Ipsos. Geert Wilders and his consorts would now obtain between 29 and 33 seats if elections were held. The VVD on the other hand has gone down from 41 seats to 18 to 25 seats in the polls.

The decline of the PvdA is even worse. In 2012 this party scored 38 seats in Parliament, but it is rapidly spiralling down to single digit numbers. According to Ipsos, the PvdA would now still get 18 seats, but according to De Hond they would now only obtain ten seats, as announced on 22 September. This would mean that six political parties would become larger than the PvdA. With these latest figures, the total number of seats in Parliament from the coalition parties has gone down to less than 30 (from 81). In parliament, a majority of 76 seats is needed to make new laws. Even Maurice de Hond is staggered by these outcomes and stated that in the 37 years that he has polled voters, he has never experienced such a decline in results from the government parties or prime minister. The number of seats of the PvdA is actually at a historic low.

Of course, polls don’t mean anything. There’s just one poll that really matters and that is the final result on Election Day. So after Prinsjesdag on the third Tuesday of September (17 September), the leaders of the SP and PVV called for new elections. And it is to be expected that also the 50Plus, D66 and CDA are hoping for a new election day. “It is better that the nation is stagnant for two months until the election than that we have to deal with a total of four years with this government,” SP leader Emile Roemer told the NOS.

It is needless to say that both PvdA and VVD are not motivated to pull the plug out of this government coalition. Even though there won’t be any love lost, the VVD and PvdA will continue to hold each other in a death dance. They have their hopes held high, that if the economy picks up in the next three years, it is they who will benefit. Never mind that the VVD and PvdA don’t have a majority in the Eerste Kamer (House of Parliament); the government parties seek to get majorities on a case-by-case basis.

In the meantime, the VVD and PvdA announced on Prinsjesdag that 37 Joint Strike Fighters (JSF) will be bought at the cost of around 4.5 billion euro. On the other hand, the inhabitants of this nation will have to face heavy financial challenges because the government is going to impose an annual six billion euro in cutbacks and tax rises. Increasing taxes on the one hand and purchasing fighter planes at the same time: these kinds of decisions cannot be explained to normal thinking people. It is not a matter of if, but when the current government will collapse. Ladies and gentlemen: place your bets now!

 

(Gepubliceerd in The Holland Times, October edition)