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01 juli 2015

The crisis is dead, long live economic growth!

Farewell, crisis and hello prosperity! The seven years of mayhem are definitely and finally over and we can start enjoying an economic upswing as we have rarely seen before. Gone are the doomsayers who prophetise immense poverty, world wars and other nasty things. We, the consumers, want to live, thrive and prosper. And spend a lot of money at the same time. And so we do, JOEP DERKSEN reports.

After years of downfall, the international economy has picked up speed. It started in the United States, but now the European countries are benefitting as well. One of the last countries to experience this economic pleasure was the Netherlands. Yet, at last, there are no red numbers anymore. On June 24, the CBS (Centraal Bureau for the Statistics) released the final confirmation of our upcoming prosperity; in the first quarter of 2015, the Dutch economy grew with not less than 0.6%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. This percentage is even 30% higher as predicted, the CBS announced. 'The growth is supported more and more by all aspects of the economy; not only the investments and consumers but also exports give a positive contribution.
Especially the household consumption has risen more than expected. But also the investmens in buildings and infrastructure is much higher than was previously forecast. The same accounts for the investments in machinery and installations. Even the black sheeps of the economy, retail and services are on the up; consumers have started spending their money for these sectors as well. And what we don't consume in our country, we export to the world. And the world needs more and more of our products and services.
And yes, I know; of course there will be sceptic readers amongst you, who will criticize this news. 'How come there are more food banks (voedselbanken) than ever before' and 'the morgage of my house is still higher than its value'. 'And what about the Greek economic downfall; there's no solution in sight for this problem either'. Of course, not all is well. But Rome wasn't build in one day. Nor was Athens, by the way.
But one thing is certain; with an economy that is picking up pace rapidly, it will be just a matter of time before the inhabitants of this country will benefit as well. Even our government is considering giving 5 billion euro in tax returns back to the people. If not anything else, it will be welcomed by many, so that they can start paying part of their debts.
For the government, celebrations have begun as well. The budget deficit will decrease to 1.9 percent of the total of the Dutch economy. And next year, this percentage will even go down to 0.8%! Because of the economic recovery the government collects a lot more tax and spends less money to unemployment payments as well. Furthermore, the national debt decreases: tot 64.4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product next year. And the total Dutch economy is expected to constitute a total of 698 billion euro by the end of 2016.
OK; on with the good news. When you compare the economy of this years' first quarter with the economy one year ago, the economic growth is an amazing 2.5%! Compare that to the numbers of 2012 (1.1% economic downturn), 2013 (0.5% down) and 2014 (1.0% economic upturn). If we keep up this pace the next fifteen years or so, our incomes will have doubled. And the inflation is lower than ever; a mere 0.9%. Also, the rise of unemployment has come to a complete stop and more jobs are available. In the past quarter seventy-one thousand (71,000!) people received the good news that they can receive a monthly pay check again. Whether they are an employee or that they have set up their own little enterprise.
And if you have your own company, it will be good to also find clients abroad. Research bureau Markit reported on 23 June that the economic growth in the Eurozone has risen to 54.1%. This is the highest level in 49 months! This performance is much better than the economists have predicted and of all the countries, it was France and Germany that were amongst the best performers. The chief economist of Markit, Chris Williamson, explained in the Telegraaf of 23 June, that the robust growth is strong enough to overcome certain obstacles, such as the 'Greek storm'.
Already our economy is roughly back on the level of 2008. The CPB (Centraal Planbureau; Central Planning Agency) confirms that the Dutch economy is getting stronger than ever. Last month the CPB announced a drop in unemployment to 6.7% (or just under 600,000 people) in 2016 and the budget deficit will decrease to a meagre 0.8%. Compare that to the crisis of the 1980s when almost one million people did not have a job.
And all houseowners can open the champagne bottles again, says Servaas van der Laan of Elsevier: 'Times have gone that prospective house buyers can take the time and hold lengthy negotiations on the selling price. Due to the extremely low mortgage interest rate and severely low prices, it is now very attractive to buy a house.' And this is done all over the country: house sales went up from 110,000 in 2013 to over 153,000 in 2014.' And in 2015? Who knows; the sky may just be the limit.